2019 Bitcoin (BTC) Preview: Monkey See Monkey Do — $13,000 Next?
Bitcoin (BTC) has remained very stable (Figure 1) on the way up. It looks like a head and shoulders bottom is in place, and the next target could be $4,500. $3,800 is now support.
The fact the equities decline had no impact on BTC is good. In fact, the equities decline may have contributed to the Bitcoin (BTC) rally.
If that theme holds, that’s practically a holiday season miracle.
There is another theme that may be holding BTC together. Big traditional asset managers are coming into the crypto space one by one. Even if a fund manager doesn’t understand or even like crypto, he or she may HAVE to get involved for fear of missing any future rally.
It’s essentially monkey see monkey do.
This can have a powerful bullish effect IF (key word) a crypto rally starts. Monkey see monkey do powered the rally in equities for over two years. If BTC goes up again, nobody can afford to miss the move — particularly with the rest of their portfolios (stocks and bonds) beginning a protracted down move.
Here’s another way to look at it: When BTC rallied in 2017, less than 1 percent of asset managers were involved in the up move. If BTC starts rallying again, that number will be above 5 percent and may climb exponentially. So miners and whales may be selling to traditional asset managers who are accumulating quietly. Think of it as silent FOMO at work.
Bottom Line: If crypto continues to go up or hold steady as equities drop, the 5 percent of the big-players who buy crypto may win out. Gann and Elliot Wave work show a distinct possibility to see Bitcoin at $5,000 by the end of 2018, $13,000 by the end of Q1 2019, and maybe see $40,000 this time next year (Figure 2).