At the beginning of this month the Bitcoin (BTC) market was looking impressive. Indeed, Bitcoin had been consistently rallying from a low of $3,800 in March all the way to $12,000, and it looked like the fundamentals were on the side of Bitcoin climbing even higher and possibly testing the all-time high of $20,000 later this year.
However, the crypto market has rapidly flipped, and after being rejected from the $12,000 resistance level Bitcoin (BTC) broke below support at $11,000 only a couple of days later, and as of this writing Bitcoin has broken below critical support at $10,000.
It is perhaps possible that Bitcoin will quickly recover to $10,000 sometime today, but the trend does not seem to be Bitcoin’s friend, and global economic headwinds which are crashing the stock market are crashing Bitcoin as well.
Indeed, Bitcoin’s recent misfortune has coincided with the sudden dump of Apple and Tesla stocks, stocks which went from being in a record setting rally to rapidly shedding hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap. The Tesla and Apple reversal sent shockwaves through the global economy, causing the worst day on the stock markets since the Coronavirus crash in March, and just like in March, Bitcoin went down with the ship as well.
Zooming out, the trend this year is eerily similar to last year. During 2019 Bitcoin saw an incredible rally from $3,000-$4,000 to a peak of $12,000-$14,000 in the middle of the summer, specifically during late June and early July.
Just like last year, Bitcoin rallied from around $3,000-$4,000 in March to a peak of $12,000 in the middle of summer, and now as Fall approaches Bitcoin is cooling off.
This begs the question, will we see a long cold crypto winter just like last year? Last winter Bitcoin was consistently dropping and fell below $7,000 at its worst point.
All of this being said, the economic circumstances last year are completely different than this year. This year we have had a Bitcoin block halving and a global economic crash, whereas last year the global economy was still in the midst of a record setting bull run.
Therefore, as investment firms often say, past results are not indicative of future results, especially in a case like this where the global economy is completely different in 2020 versus 2019.
Basically, all logic would indicate that the similarity between 2019 and 2020 up to now is just a coincidence, and although the market movements are similar with a crypto bull run peaking in the summer and then cooling off, the market is being driven by completely different forces.
However, it is within the realm of possibility that there is some unknown fundamental which causes hot crypto summers and bearish crypto winters, and this is a subject which deserves thorough research.