Astrology has been long used in technical analysis disciplines like Gann and Elliott Wave. The simple premise is that moon movements can affect human behavior. It may not sound plausible but just ask any police officer or EMT about what happens the night of a full moon.
In this case, we noticed that the new moon seems to be relevant for Bitcoin (BTC). The new moon phase occurs when the moon is either invisible from Earth, or shortly thereafter when it appears as a slender crescent. Said differently, it’s appearance is like the opposite of the full moon.
Looking at the recent new moons plotted against Bitcoin (BTC) price, we noticed the avalanche lower in November started after a new moon (red dots, Figure 1). The price pattern of the sideways action in Bitcoin (BTC) looks very similar. We also noticed that the sideways consolidation back in November ended with a decline after three full moons. This could imply that Bitcoin (BTC) is on a cycle where it goes lower every third new moon.
There are some other developments that could impact Bitcoin (BTC) in a negative way. Recent news about the shutdown at Gemini may have left large OTC dealers with millions of dollars in trapped capital. Theoretically, this could lead to a liquidation of other crypto assets elsewhere for dealers to cover any potential losses.
This development with Gemini is also shocking given its recent New York City ad campaign based around the slogan: “Crypto Needs Rules” (Figure 2).
Bottom Line: Speaking of rules, The Crypto.IQ Trading Desk has followed its rules and been quite disciplined in this quiet range in Bitcoin (BTC). They are awaiting confirmation of a break either way. We have gotten positive feedback on the moon work and we continue to benefit from the discussion with professional traders in our premium trading room.
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