Recent analysis from JPMorgan Chase shows that the bear market has had drastic impacts on the amount of institutional investor interest in crypto markets in the past few months.
It appears the year of the continued bear market has driven many financial institutions from participating in the increasingly unprofitable crypto scene.
Bloomberg has published a chart detailing a 50 percent drop in CTFC open interest and a more than 66 percent decrease in CBOE open interest from respective peak volumes.
However, some analysts and CME itself view the metrics differently. Mike McGlone from Bloomberg Intelligence says that the decline in the price of Bitcoin actually distorts the open interest and that open interest is at an all-time high.
This coincides with a recent email that CME sent out in celebration of Bitcoin Futures’ one year anniversary. In its report, CME stated that Bitcoin Futures open interest is at an all-time high and reached a record open interest on Dec. 17 and record volume on Nov. 20. They also reported that the daily notional value of contracts is $127 million, suggesting there is still a significant degree of interest from larger players using futures to trade Bitcoin.
With numerous financial institutions looking to offer products at the peak of the crypto market a year ago, many investors simply hopped on a bandwagon without realizing what they were dealing with. The daily median transaction size was reported at $5,000 a year ago with speculators trading full swing. Since then, the metric has plummeted to less than $160, says the report with data obtained from BitInfoCharts.com. The majority of this value comes from speculation on the derivatives products offered by financial institutions, which still have an extremely high volume of contracts open.
However, the number of daily transactions has also increased steadily since February. While still below the January high, the number of transactions has increased month over month alongside the number of addresses.
Crypto.IQ has previously reported on the reality that paper certificates bring to the Bitcoin market. Excess short orders create an artificially large supply of Bitcoin using institutional investor money. As leveraged shorts pile up, the Bitcoin market is driven further down to the point of dipping below $1 billion total market capitalization this past week, down from a peak of over $300 billion. This decrease in speculative cash flow could be good for Bitcoin’s price recovery. The decline in inflated values of buy and sell orders will nudge Bitcoin markets toward equilibrium and restore a more natural price discovery mechanism.
Bitcoin’s value is, of course, derived from it’s SHA-256 encryption and the transparency and verifiability of the blockchain behind it, not investor speculation. The individuals and teams who work to create a space for growth in Bitcoin industries still maintain productivity in the bear market, regardless of short-term profits. Traders, those most likely to be betting on the Bitcoin futures market, have much shorter time horizons than miners or technology innovators looking to foster growth and not just trying to turn a quick profit.
While people continue to panic sell and realize losses for tax purposes as the year closes, bitcoin only strengthens as supporters of its true purpose remain: disruption of the financial industry and creating a global means of exchange and store of value free from the manipulation of corrupt banks, regulators and media.
JPMorgan doesn’t exactly have a positive reputation in the crypto space to being. CEO of the bank, Jamie Dimon has repeatedly called Bitcoin “a scam” and proclaims “no interest” in it. Still, we see JPMorgan buying mass quantities of Bitcoin and trading the futures products. There appears to be no end to the manipulation and lies, but the future of Bitcoin remains as strong as ever.