|One of the most important technical analysis topics in crypto this year has been the transition from a quiet range trade to a more violent down trend.
Take Bitcoin as an example. Bitcoin was in a range from $5,800 to $6,800 for a four month period spanning from August to November. The price action was really quiet. In accordance with technical analysis theory, when the breakout occurred from a really, really quiet range, Bitcoin dropped sharply.
We see a new development where there is a coming breakout from a quiet range in the cross rate between Ethereum and Bitcoin (ETHBTC). In this cross rate, price action has moved sideways since early September. Said plainly, the value of Ethereum and Bitcoin has been dropped at roughly the same rate of speed since September (Figure 1).
This chart has two important takeaways. First, Ethereum may accelerate lower at a faster pace than Bitcoin. Ethereum could move towards 80 (Figure 2) and possibly on to 40.
Second, the decline in Ethereum may be exacerbated by the already precarious situation where Bitcoin Cash and EOS fall to shocking low levels.
Recently, we wrote an article on November 29 that proved prophetic where we made a call for EOS to drop dramatically. At the time the article was written, EOS was near 3.20. As of the writing of this article EOS had fallen 32% since we published the original article on November 29. The ultimate downside target could be 1.61 (Figure 3).
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is in even worse shape. At the time this report was written Bitcoin Cash was down 10% at 114. The next best chart support in Bitcoin Cash does not come in until 17. Said differently, that means BCH could fall 500% (Figure 4).