Looking at the Ethereum (ETH) chart, you can start to see the negative news flow take a toll. On the two day chart, Ethereum (ETH) is falling below its 21-period moving average (Figure 1). This setup seems similar to action right before the July and November declines. Specifically, small moves above the moving average, followed by a slow decline below it, eventually led to heavy selling.
The stochastics picture in Ethereum (ETH), and Ethereum (ETH) vs. BTC (ETHBTC) is also negative.
In ETHBTC, the key level to watch is .0329 (Figure 2). That is the location of the 21-period moving average on the two-day chart. If ETHBTC falls below that level, Ethereum (ETH) could lose half its value vs. Bitcoin.
Both Litecoin (LTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are slipping below their respective 21-day moving averages on their two-day charts. That level is 32 (Figure 3). Stochastics are also decidedly negative. As of now, the technical setup is similar to the one prior to the September decline. In the September case, Litecoin (LTC) spent some time above the 21-period average and then declined sharply once it fell back below it.
We also see evidence that the recent pump in alts may be coming to a close. According to research gleaned from the crypto Twitterverse, the upcycle in crypto starts with a rise in big coins (late December, early January). The pump then moves to higher quality alts, for example, Tron (TRX). The final stage of the cycle is when the big moves occur in lower quality alts. Perhaps Steem (STEEM) is an example of this type of alt.
Steem (STEEM) seems out of gas technically. Steem (STEEM) has moved to a zone where there is three-pronged resistance (Figure 4). Steem (STEEM) has hit the 100-day moving average and horizontal resistance that happens to come in at the 38 percent retracement of its recent down move.
Bottom Line: As the alt rally comes to a close, downside risk in crypto may be rising. Whatever negative fundamental developments in Ethereum have the potential to start a bigger decline. Said differently, the next big move in Ethereum (ETH) may take all of crypto with it.