Believe it or not, there is a lot to say about today’s non-event price action. As of this writing, at 5:30 p.m. EST, the extremely tight range may be an important signal unto itself.
Beginning in November, if there was a really small candlestick after a big move up or a big down move, that small candlestick was a sign that another big move was imminent.
In Bitcoin (BTC), the directional meaning of the tiny candlesticks can be mixed. Small candlesticks can start big down moves in early and mid-November (Figure 1). We even noticed one of these tiny candles at the bottom of the markets at Christmas. That candle is specifically called a “doji.” That is when a market closes almost exactly where it opened.
The pattern is much more distinct in Ethereum (ETH). In Ethereum (ETH), we see tiny doji candles right before the last three big up moves and just after the start of the recent big up move. In the case of Ethereum (ETH), the small daily ranges seem to imply trend continuation.
So, since Ethereum went down yesterday, today’s small range or a few days of small ranges imply another big down move may be coming.
Looking on what we hope is the bright side for crypto in 2019, STO-driven coin Polymath (POLY) is also making a tight range on top of support from the bottom of a triangle and a horizontal support point.
Since Polymath (POLY) did not participate in the recent alt mini-craze led by Tron (TRX), it will be interesting to see if Polymath (POLY) will hold up.
Bottom Line: A busy last hour of the day would eliminate the worry that the crypto market is too quiet, implying that something big could happen. In submarine warfare, the need to go silent with the command “all stop, quit quiet” usually implies danger.
The Crypto.IQ Trading Desk hasn’t weighed in yet on the implications of today’s quiet action. They do agree that consolidation like this can trigger big moves. The strategies and key navigation levels for the next trades are being formulated.